tfp.distributions.HiddenMarkovModel

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Hidden Markov model distribution.

Inherits From: Distribution

tfp.distributions.HiddenMarkovModel(
    initial_distribution,
    transition_distribution,
    observation_distribution,
    num_steps,
    validate_args=False,
    allow_nan_stats=True,
    time_varying_transition_distribution=False,
    time_varying_observation_distribution=False,
    mask=None,
    name='HiddenMarkovModel'
)

Used in the notebooks

The HiddenMarkovModel distribution implements a (batch of) discrete hidden Markov models where the initial states, transition probabilities and observed states are all given by user-provided distributions.

In this model, there is a sequence of integer-valued hidden states: z[0], z[1], ..., z[num_steps - 1] and a sequence of observed states: x[0], ..., x[num_steps - 1]. The distribution of z[0] is given by initial_distribution. The conditional probability of z[i + 1] given z[i] is described by the batch of distributions in transition_distribution. For a batch of hidden Markov models, the coordinates before the rightmost one of the transition_distribution batch correspond to indices into the hidden Markov model batch. The rightmost coordinate of the batch is used to select which distribution z[i + 1] is drawn from. The distributions corresponding to the probability of z[i + 1] conditional on z[i] == k is given by the elements of the batch whose rightmost coordinate is k. Similarly, the conditional distribution of x[i] given z[i] is given by the batch of observation_distribution. When the rightmost coordinate of observation_distribution is k it gives the conditional probabilities of x[i] given z[i] == k. The probability distribution associated with the HiddenMarkovModel distribution is the marginal distribution of x[0],...,x[num_steps - 1].

Examples

tfd = tfp.distributions

# A simple weather model.

# Represent a cold day with 0 and a hot day with 1.
# Suppose the first day of a sequence has a 0.8 chance of being cold.
# We can model this using the categorical distribution:

initial_distribution = tfd.Categorical(probs=[0.8, 0.2])

# Suppose a cold day has a 30% chance of being followed by a hot day
# and a hot day has a 20% chance of being followed by a cold day.
# We can model this as:

transition_distribution = tfd.Categorical(probs=[[0.7, 0.3],
                                                 [0.2, 0.8]])

# Suppose additionally that on each day the temperature is
# normally distributed with mean and standard deviation 0 and 5 on
# a cold day and mean and standard deviation 15 and 10 on a hot day.
# We can model this with:

observation_distribution = tfd.Normal(loc=[0., 15.], scale=[5., 10.])

# We can combine these distributions into a single week long
# hidden Markov model with:

model = tfd.HiddenMarkovModel(
    initial_distribution=initial_distribution,
    transition_distribution=transition_distribution,
    observation_distribution=observation_distribution,
    num_steps=7)

# The expected temperatures for each day are given by:

model.mean()  # shape [7], elements approach 9.0

# The log pdf of a week of temperature 0 is:

model.log_prob(tf.zeros(shape=[7]))

References

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hidden_Markov_model

a = tf.Module()
b = tf.Module()
c = tf.Module()
a.b = b
b.c = c
list(a.submodules) == [b, c]
True
list(b.submodules) == [c]
True
list(c.submodules) == []
True

Methods

batch_shape_tensor

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batch_shape_tensor(
    name='batch_shape_tensor'
)

Shape of a single sample from a single event index as a 1-D Tensor.

The batch dimensions are indexes into independent, non-identical parameterizations of this distribution.

cdf

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cdf(
    value, name='cdf', **kwargs
)

Cumulative distribution function.

Given random variable X, the cumulative distribution function cdf is:

cdf(x) := P[X <= x]

copy

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copy(
    **override_parameters_kwargs
)

Creates a deep copy of the distribution.

covariance

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covariance(
    name='covariance', **kwargs
)

Covariance.

Covariance is (possibly) defined only for non-scalar-event distributions.

For example, for a length-k, vector-valued distribution, it is calculated as,

Cov[i, j] = Covariance(X_i, X_j) = E[(X_i - E[X_i]) (X_j - E[X_j])]

where Cov is a (batch of) k x k matrix, 0 <= (i, j) < k, and E denotes expectation.

Alternatively, for non-vector, multivariate distributions (e.g., matrix-valued, Wishart), Covariance shall return a (batch of) matrices under some vectorization of the events, i.e.,

Cov[i, j] = Covariance(Vec(X)_i, Vec(X)_j) = [as above]

where Cov is a (batch of) k' x k' matrices, 0 <= (i, j) < k' = reduce_prod(event_shape), and Vec is some function mapping indices of this distribution's event dimensions to indices of a length-k' vector.

cross_entropy

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cross_entropy(
    other, name='cross_entropy'
)

Computes the (Shannon) cross entropy.

Denote this distribution (self) by P and the other distribution by Q. Assuming P, Q are absolutely continuous with respect to one another and permit densities p(x) dr(x) and q(x) dr(x), (Shannon) cross entropy is defined as:

H[P, Q] = E_p[-log q(X)] = -int_F p(x) log q(x) dr(x)

where F denotes the support of the random variable X ~ P.

entropy

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entropy(
    name='entropy', **kwargs
)

Shannon entropy in nats.

event_shape_tensor

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event_shape_tensor(
    name='event_shape_tensor'
)

Shape of a single sample from a single batch as a 1-D int32 Tensor.

experimental_default_event_space_bijector

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experimental_default_event_space_bijector(
    *args, **kwargs
)

Bijector mapping the reals (R**n) to the event space of the distribution.

Distributions with continuous support may implement _default_event_space_bijector which returns a subclass of tfp.bijectors.Bijector that maps R**n to the distribution's event space. For example, the default bijector for the Beta distribution is tfp.bijectors.Sigmoid(), which maps the real line to [0, 1], the support of the Beta distribution. The default bijector for the CholeskyLKJ distribution is tfp.bijectors.CorrelationCholesky, which maps R^(k * (k-1) // 2) to the submanifold of k x k lower triangular matrices with ones along the diagonal.

The purpose of experimental_default_event_space_bijector is to enable gradient descent in an unconstrained space for Variational Inference and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods. Some effort has been made to choose bijectors such that the tails of the distribution in the unconstrained space are between Gaussian and Exponential.

For distributions with discrete event space, or for which TFP currently lacks a suitable bijector, this function returns None.

experimental_fit

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@classmethod
experimental_fit(
    value, sample_ndims=1, validate_args=False, **init_kwargs
)

Instantiates a distribution that maximizes the likelihood of x.

experimental_local_measure

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experimental_local_measure(
    value, backward_compat=False, **kwargs
)

Returns a log probability density together with a TangentSpace.

A TangentSpace allows us to calculate the correct push-forward density when we apply a transformation to a Distribution on a strict submanifold of R^n (typically via a Bijector in the TransformedDistribution subclass). The density correction uses the basis of the tangent space.

experimental_sample_and_log_prob

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experimental_sample_and_log_prob(
    sample_shape=(), seed=None, name='sample_and_log_prob', **kwargs
)

Samples from this distribution and returns the log density of the sample.

The default implementation simply calls sample and log_prob:

def _sample_and_log_prob(self, sample_shape, seed, **kwargs):
  x = self.sample(sample_shape=sample_shape, seed=seed, **kwargs)
  return x, self.log_prob(x, **kwargs)

However, some subclasses may provide more efficient and/or numerically stable implementations.

is_scalar_batch

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is_scalar_batch(
    name='is_scalar_batch'
)

Indicates that batch_shape == [].

is_scalar_event

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is_scalar_event(
    name='is_scalar_event'
)

Indicates that event_shape == [].

kl_divergence

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kl_divergence(
    other, name='kl_divergence'
)

Computes the Kullback--Leibler divergence.

Denote this distribution (self) by p and the other distribution by q. Assuming p, q are absolutely continuous with respect to reference measure r, the KL divergence is defined as:

KL[p, q] = E_p[log(p(X)/q(X))]
         = -int_F p(x) log q(x) dr(x) + int_F p(x) log p(x) dr(x)
         = H[p, q] - H[p]

where F denotes the support of the random variable X ~ p, H[., .] denotes (Shannon) cross entropy, and H[.] denotes (Shannon) entropy.

log_cdf

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log_cdf(
    value, name='log_cdf', **kwargs
)

Log cumulative distribution function.

Given random variable X, the cumulative distribution function cdf is:

log_cdf(x) := Log[ P[X <= x] ]

Often, a numerical approximation can be used for log_cdf(x) that yields a more accurate answer than simply taking the logarithm of the cdf when x << -1.

log_prob

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log_prob(
    value, name='log_prob', **kwargs
)

Log probability density/mass function.

Additional documentation from HiddenMarkovModel:

kwargs:

• mask: optional bool-type tensor with rightmost dimension matching num_steps, indicating which observations should be ignored (not conditioned on). When the mask has value True, the corresponding observations aren't used. If no mask is specified (mask and self.mask are both None) then all of the observations are used. The leftmost dimensions shape(mask)[:-1] must broadcast with self.batch_shape. shape of x. Default value: None (falls back to self.mask).

log_survival_function

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log_survival_function(
    value, name='log_survival_function', **kwargs
)

Log survival function.

Given random variable X, the survival function is defined:

log_survival_function(x) = Log[ P[X > x] ]
                         = Log[ 1 - P[X <= x] ]
                         = Log[ 1 - cdf(x) ]

Typically, different numerical approximations can be used for the log survival function, which are more accurate than 1 - cdf(x) when x >> 1.

mean

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mean(
    name='mean', **kwargs
)

Mean.

mode

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mode(
    name='mode', **kwargs
)

Mode.

num_states_tensor

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num_states_tensor()

The number of hidden states in the hidden Markov model.

param_shapes

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@classmethod
param_shapes(
    sample_shape, name='DistributionParamShapes'
)

Shapes of parameters given the desired shape of a call to sample(). (deprecated)

This is a class method that describes what key/value arguments are required to instantiate the given Distribution so that a particular shape is returned for that instance's call to sample().

Subclasses should override class method _param_shapes.

param_static_shapes

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@classmethod
param_static_shapes(
    sample_shape
)

param_shapes with static (i.e. TensorShape) shapes. (deprecated)

This is a class method that describes what key/value arguments are required to instantiate the given Distribution so that a particular shape is returned for that instance's call to sample(). Assumes that the sample's shape is known statically.

Subclasses should override class method _param_shapes to return constant-valued tensors when constant values are fed.

parameter_properties

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@classmethod
parameter_properties(
    dtype=tf.float32, num_classes=None
)

Returns a dict mapping constructor arg names to property annotations.

This dict should include an entry for each of the distribution's Tensor-valued constructor arguments.

Distribution subclasses are not required to implement _parameter_properties, so this method may raise NotImplementedError. Providing a _parameter_properties implementation enables several advanced features, including:

• Distribution batch slicing (sliced_distribution = distribution[i:j]).
• Automatic inference of _batch_shape and _batch_shape_tensor, which must otherwise be computed explicitly.
• Automatic instantiation of the distribution within TFP's internal property tests.
• Automatic construction of 'trainable' instances of the distribution using appropriate bijectors to avoid violating parameter constraints. This enables the distribution family to be used easily as a surrogate posterior in variational inference.

In the future, parameter property annotations may enable additional functionality; for example, returning Distribution instances from tf.vectorized_map.

posterior_marginals

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posterior_marginals(
    observations, mask=None, name='posterior_marginals'
)

Compute marginal posterior distribution for each state.

This function computes, for each time step, the marginal conditional probability that the hidden Markov model was in each possible state given the observations that were made at each time step.

So if the hidden states are z[0],...,z[num_steps - 1] and the observations are x[0], ..., x[num_steps - 1], then this function computes P(z[i] | x[0], ..., x[num_steps - 1]) for all i from 0 to num_steps - 1.

This operation is sometimes called smoothing. It uses a form of the forward-backward algorithm.

posterior_mode

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posterior_mode(
    observations, mask=None, name='posterior_mode'
)

Compute maximum likelihood sequence of hidden states.

When this function is provided with a sequence of observations x[0], ..., x[num_steps - 1], it returns the sequence of hidden states z[0], ..., z[num_steps - 1], drawn from the underlying Markov chain, that is most likely to yield those observations.

It uses the Viterbi algorithm.

Examples

tfd = tfp.distributions

# A simple weather model.

# Represent a cold day with 0 and a hot day with 1.
# Suppose the first day of a sequence has a 0.8 chance of being cold.

initial_distribution = tfd.Categorical(probs=[0.8, 0.2])

# Suppose a cold day has a 30% chance of being followed by a hot day
# and a hot day has a 20% chance of being followed by a cold day.

transition_distribution = tfd.Categorical(probs=[[0.7, 0.3],
                                                 [0.2, 0.8]])

# Suppose additionally that on each day the temperature is
# normally distributed with mean and standard deviation 0 and 5 on
# a cold day and mean and standard deviation 15 and 10 on a hot day.

observation_distribution = tfd.Normal(loc=[0., 15.], scale=[5., 10.])

# This gives the hidden Markov model:

model = tfd.HiddenMarkovModel(
    initial_distribution=initial_distribution,
    transition_distribution=transition_distribution,
    observation_distribution=observation_distribution,
    num_steps=7)

# Suppose we observe gradually rising temperatures over a week:
temps = [-2., 0., 2., 4., 6., 8., 10.]

# We can now compute the most probable sequence of hidden states:

model.posterior_mode(temps)

# The result is [0 0 0 0 0 1 1] telling us that the transition
# from "cold" to "hot" most likely happened between the
# 5th and 6th days.

prior_marginals

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prior_marginals(
    name='prior'
)

Compute prior marginal distribution for each state.

This function computes, for each time step, the prior probability that the hidden Markov model is at a given state. In other words this function computes: P(z[i]) for all i from 0 to num_steps - 1.

prob

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prob(
    value, name='prob', **kwargs
)

Probability density/mass function.

quantile

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quantile(
    value, name='quantile', **kwargs
)

Quantile function. Aka 'inverse cdf' or 'percent point function'.

Given random variable X and p in [0, 1], the quantile is:

quantile(p) := x such that P[X <= x] == p

sample

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sample(
    sample_shape=(), seed=None, name='sample', **kwargs
)

Generate samples of the specified shape.

Note that a call to sample() without arguments will generate a single sample.

stddev

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stddev(
    name='stddev', **kwargs
)

Standard deviation.

Standard deviation is defined as,

stddev = E[(X - E[X])**2]**0.5

where X is the random variable associated with this distribution, E denotes expectation, and stddev.shape = batch_shape + event_shape.

survival_function

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survival_function(
    value, name='survival_function', **kwargs
)

Survival function.

Given random variable X, the survival function is defined:

survival_function(x) = P[X > x]
                     = 1 - P[X <= x]
                     = 1 - cdf(x).

unnormalized_log_prob

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unnormalized_log_prob(
    value, name='unnormalized_log_prob', **kwargs
)

Potentially unnormalized log probability density/mass function.

This function is similar to log_prob, but does not require that the return value be normalized. (Normalization here refers to the total integral of probability being one, as it should be by definition for any probability distribution.) This is useful, for example, for distributions where the normalization constant is difficult or expensive to compute. By default, this simply calls log_prob.

variance

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variance(
    name='variance', **kwargs
)

Variance.

Variance is defined as,

Var = E[(X - E[X])**2]

where X is the random variable associated with this distribution, E denotes expectation, and Var.shape = batch_shape + event_shape.

with_name_scope

@classmethod
with_name_scope(
    method
)

Decorator to automatically enter the module name scope.

class MyModule(tf.Module):
  @tf.Module.with_name_scope
  def __call__(self, x):
    if not hasattr(self, 'w'):
      self.w = tf.Variable(tf.random.normal([x.shape[1], 3]))
    return tf.matmul(x, self.w)

Using the above module would produce tf.Variables and tf.Tensors whose names included the module name:

mod = MyModule()
mod(tf.ones([1, 2]))
<tf.Tensor: shape=(1, 3), dtype=float32, numpy=..., dtype=float32)>
mod.w
<tf.Variable 'my_module/Variable:0' shape=(2, 3) dtype=float32,
numpy=..., dtype=float32)>

__getitem__

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__getitem__(
    slices
)

Slices the batch axes of this distribution, returning a new instance.

b = tfd.Bernoulli(logits=tf.zeros([3, 5, 7, 9]))
b.batch_shape  # => [3, 5, 7, 9]
b2 = b[:, tf.newaxis, ..., -2:, 1::2]
b2.batch_shape  # => [3, 1, 5, 2, 4]

x = tf.random.normal([5, 3, 2, 2])
cov = tf.matmul(x, x, transpose_b=True)
chol = tf.linalg.cholesky(cov)
loc = tf.random.normal([4, 1, 3, 1])
mvn = tfd.MultivariateNormalTriL(loc, chol)
mvn.batch_shape  # => [4, 5, 3]
mvn.event_shape  # => [2]
mvn2 = mvn[:, 3:, ..., ::-1, tf.newaxis]
mvn2.batch_shape  # => [4, 2, 3, 1]
mvn2.event_shape  # => [2]

__iter__

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__iter__()